To estimate how much you’ll lose per $100 bet on a slot, multiply $100 by (1 − RTP). If a slot’s RTP is 96%, your expected loss per $100 is $100 × (1 − 0.96) = $4. This is not a prediction of what happens in a single session; it’s the long-run average cost of wagering when outcomes are averaged over many spins.
The 10‑second RTP loss method (and why it works)
Slots publish (or are assigned) a Return to Player (RTP) percentage, the portion of total wagers a game is designed to return over an extremely large number of spins. The remainder is the house edge.
Use this quick conversion:
- House edge = 100% − RTP
- Expected loss per $100 wagered = $100 × house edge
In plain terms: every 1% of house edge equals $1 of expected loss per $100 wagered.
Examples you can do mentally:
- RTP 98% → house edge 2% → expected loss $2 per $100
- RTP 95% → house edge 5% → expected loss $5 per $100
- RTP 92% → house edge 8% → expected loss $8 per $100
Why this works: RTP is defined on total amount wagered, not on time, not on deposits, and not on how “hot” a machine feels. If you cycle $100 through a slot (total bets placed equal $100), the math above gives the expected cost of that wagering volume.
Make sure “$100 bet” means the same thing you think it means
Most confusion comes from what “per $100 bet” refers to. In RTP math, “$100 bet” typically means $100 wagered in total, not “a single $100 spin.”
Total wagered vs single-spin stake
- Single spin stake: You bet $1 per spin for 100 spins, totaling $100 wagered.
- Single large stake: You bet $100 on one spin, totaling $100 wagered.
The expected loss is the same per $100 wagered, but the volatility (how wild the results swing) can be very different. One $100 spin can easily be $0 back; 100 $1 spins often “feel” smoother, even if the long-run cost is identical.
Total wagered vs money “at risk”
Players often say “I bet $100” when they mean “I deposited $100.” If you recycle wins into more spins, you might wager $300 total from a $100 deposit. Your RTP-based expected loss should be calculated from the $300 total wagered, not the deposit.
A quick way to align terms:
- Expected loss = (total wagered) × (1 − RTP)
If you don’t know your total wagered, estimate it using section 4.
RTP gives expectation, not a guarantee: the volatility reality check
RTP is a long-run average; slots are high-variance games. Two slots can both be 96% RTP and feel radically different because of volatility and payout structure.
Why short sessions don’t “converge” to RTP
In a short session, outcomes are dominated by randomness. Even after hundreds of spins, your return can deviate substantially from the RTP. That doesn’t mean RTP is “wrong”; it means your sample is small relative to the game’s variance.
Same RTP, different risk profile
- A low-volatility slot tends to pay smaller wins more often. You may hover near break-even longer, then drift downward.
- A high-volatility slot can pay little for long stretches and occasionally spike with a bonus or big hit. You may bust quickly or hit a large win—both consistent with the same RTP.
Practical implication: “Expected loss per $100” is best treated as a budgeting metric, not a session forecast. If you want a better sense of session outcomes, you need volatility indicators (often shown as “volatility: low/medium/high” or via hit frequency) in addition to RTP.
Converting RTP loss into “per hour” cost (optional, but actionable)
If you want to know how fast the expected loss accumulates, combine RTP with how quickly you’re betting.
You need:
- Average bet size (e.g., $1.50/spin)
- Spins per hour (often 400–800 online depending on pace and features)
- RTP
Then:
- Total wagered per hour = bet size × spins per hour
- Expected loss per hour = total wagered per hour × (1 − RTP)
Example:
- Bet size: $1.00
- Speed: 600 spins/hour
- RTP: 96%
- Total wagered/hour: $600
- Expected loss/hour: $600 × 4% = $24/hour
This conversion highlights an insight many players miss: small RTP differences compound quickly at higher spin rates. A shift from 96% RTP to 94% RTP doubles the house edge (4% to 6%), turning $24/hour into $36/hour at the same pace and bet size.
Where RTP numbers come from and how to avoid the common traps
RTP is typically provided by the game developer and can be verified in game info screens, paytables, or regulated disclosures. The catch: some slots have multiple RTP “versions” (for example, 96%, 94%, 92%) that operators can choose from.
Mid-paragraph check that prevents bad assumptions: RTP disclosures and game-info panels are sometimes summarized alongside broader payout and compliance notes; the regulator-facing details and RTP mentions are often easiest to spot when you know where to look, and references collected here illustrate how RTP and related disclosures can appear in operator documentation.
Trap 1: assuming a slot’s “headline RTP” applies everywhere
If a game exists in multiple RTP configurations, the version you’re playing may not match the number you saw in a general description elsewhere. The only number that matters is the RTP for the specific game instance you are playing.
What to do in seconds:
- Open the slot
- Find “i”, “Help”, “Game rules”, or “Paytable”
- Look for “RTP,” “Return to Player,” or a percentage under rules
Trap 2: confusing RTP with bonus conditions
RTP is a property of the base game math model. Promotions can change your effective value through wagering requirements and constraints, but they do not change the slot’s underlying RTP. For estimating loss per $100 wagered on the slot itself, use the slot RTP. For estimating the value of a bonus, you need a separate expected value calculation.
Trap 3: ignoring bet configuration effects
Some features (buy-bonus, ante bets, super spins) can alter the effective RTP and volatility versus standard play. If a feature changes the rules, treat it like a different product. Ideally, look for a stated RTP for that mode; if absent, assume your RTP-based loss estimate is less reliable.
Worked examples you can reuse (including a fast “mental math” trick)
Example A: quick budgeting per $100
- RTP: 97.2%
- House edge: 2.8%
- Expected loss per $100: $2.80
Mental trick:
97.2% RTP means “you keep $97.20 per $100 wagered on average,” so you “pay” $2.80.
Example B: comparing two slots
You’re choosing between:
- Slot 1 RTP 96.5% → loss $3.50 per $100
- Slot 2 RTP 94.0% → loss $6.00 per $100
Difference: $2.50 more expected loss per $100 on Slot 2.
If you expect to wager $800 total in a session, that’s an extra $20 in expected cost ($800 × 2.5%).
Example C: translating deposit to total wagered
- Deposit: $100
- You spin until balance is gone, but you recycle wins.
- Your total wagered (from the history panel) shows $450.
- Slot RTP: 95%
Expected loss estimate: $450 × 5% = $22.50.
This is why “I only put in $100” can still imply a much larger RTP-based expected loss: the relevant number is turnover, not deposit.
Key Takeaways
- Expected loss per $100 wagered is $100 × (1 − RTP); each 1% of house edge equals $1 per $100.
- RTP is a long-run average; short sessions can deviate widely due to volatility, even with the same RTP.
- Make sure you’re using total wagered, not deposit size, and watch for multiple RTP versions of the same slot.
- If you want a time-based estimate, convert spins and bet size into total wagered per hour, then apply (1 − RTP).